Author: Michael O'Connell

September 27, 2016 6:37am PT by Michael O’Connell

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That’s for initial showings on ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox — ahead of cable news, etc.

Monday night’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was preordained to be one of the biggest TV events of 2016 — and initial ratings have it on track to be a record setter.

Early numbers have the 90-minute showdown, simulcast on more than 10 networks and umpteen streamers, easily top all recent debate coverage. Overnight ratings among Nielsen’s metered markets have the Big Four networks pulling a total 31.2 rating among households. (The 2016 Super Bowl, which is the only real comparison for the year, pulled an early 49 rating for CBS and ultimately brought in more than 100 million viewers.)

As overnight ratings go, that’s also more than double last week’s Sunday Night Football score. It nabbed a 13.7 rating, which ultimately translated to 22.8 million viewers. Ahead of tallies from the main trio of cable news networks and the multitude of broadcasters carrying the commercial-free stream, this puts the debate on track to smash that 2012 total and very likely approach an all-time high.

A complete comparison won’t arrive until Tuesday afternoon when all numbers are in across the many networks airing the debates, but the first look at viewership will come later in the morning when Fast Affiliate ratings come in for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox. Unadjusted Fast Affiliate ratings for the broadcast networks in 2012 saw the Big Four pull a cumulative 37.2 million viewers during 90 minutes of coverage. That block, which also did not reflect time zone adjustments, was not far off from the final broadcast tally. The first presidential debate of 2012, which grossed 67.2 million viewers across a multitude of networks, ultimately drew 39.8 million of that tally from the Big Four.

Prognosticators, politicos and pundits spent much of the last week guessing how many would watch the Clinton-Trump debate. But the event stood to break a record even if it fell short of the Super Bowl size numbers that had been floated around. The most-watched presidential debate on record is the first matchup between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980. That debate pulled a whopping 80 million viewers in a time with considerably fewer channels.

Digital audiences will likely account for a significant sum of viewers once all is said and done. A plethora of outlets streamed the event for free — PBS, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook among them.

Updates will come throughout Tuesday, the first of them from the cable news networks, but there should be a final TV tally by late afternoon.

TV Ratings

September 27, 2016 6:37am PT by Michael O’Connell

The debate will likely top 80 million viewers once all is told.

Monday night’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was preordained to be one of the biggest TV events of 2016, and initial ratings have it on track to be a record setter.

Per CNN, the 12-network total for live coverage of the debate has already surpassed 80 million viewers — 80.9 million, to be exact. That’s before some likely strong lifts from PBS, which will come later in the afternoon, and doesn’t even yet include the likely record-breaking showing among streamers. (Nielsen has yet to confirm this tally.) Regardless, it would put it ahead of the 1980 debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. That set the bar at 80 million viewers.

Early numbers had the 90-minute showdown, simulcast on more than 10 networks and umpteen streamers, easily topping all recent debate coverage. With Nielsen’s Fast Affiliate ratings, the Big Four broadcast networks’ coverage pulled a total 45.3 million viewers ahead of time zone adjustments. That’s a 22 percent increase from the same numbers in 2012. Among the individual networks, NBC currently leads with 16.6 million of those viewers, followed by ABC (12.5 million), CBS (11 million) and Fox (5.3 million). Univision (2.2 million) and Telemundo (1.8 million) add another 4 million viewers.

On the big three cable networks alone, Fox News Channel, CNN and MSNBC, the debate added another 26.1 million viewers. All marked increases from 2012. FNC led the trio with 11.4 million viewers, while CNN closely following with 9.8 million and MSNBC rounded out at 4.9 million. (Fox Business Network added 673,000 viewers, while CNBC pulled 520,00.)

Pre-adjusted viewership stats for the broadcast networks’ coverage of the first debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney saw the Big Four pull a cumulative 37.2 million viewers during 90 minutes of coverage in 2012. That sum, which did not reflect time zone adjustments, was not far off from the final broadcast tally. The first presidential debate of 2012, which grossed 67.2 million viewers across a multitude of networks, ultimately drew 39.8 million of that tally from the Big Four.

Overnight ratings among Nielsen’s metered markets have the Big Four networks pulling a total 31.2 rating among households. (The 2016 Super Bowl, which is the only real comparison for the year, pulled an early 49 rating for CBS and ultimately brought in more than 100 million viewers.) As overnight ratings go, that’s also more than double last week’s Sunday Night Football score. It nabbed a 13.7 rating, which ultimately translated to 22.8 million viewers. Ahead of tallies from the main trio of cable news networks and the multitude of broadcasters carrying the commercial-free stream, this puts the debate on track to smash that 2012 total and very likely approach an all-time high.

Prognosticators, politicos and pundits spent much of the last week guessing how many would watch the Clinton-Trump debate. But the event stood to break a record even if it fell short of the Super Bowl size numbers that had been floated around. Digital audiences will likely account for a significant sum of viewers once all is said and done. A plethora of outlets streamed the event for free — PBS, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook among them.

In non-debate ratings, the increased focus on Monday night was good news for entertainment programming at 8 p.m. Though steady episodes of The Voice and The Big Bang Theory topped the hour with a respective 3.3 and 3.5 rating among adults 18-49, both steady with last week’s premieres, it was Dancing With the Stars that got a boost. The ABC show was improved 20 percent to a 1.8 rating among adults 18-49. Both Gotham (1.2 adults) on Fox and Kevin Can Wait (2.7 adults) on CBS were also steady with last week.

TV Ratings 2016 Presidental Debates

September 26, 2016 6:00am PT by Michael O’Connell

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The Super Bowl in September? Probably not.

Perhaps not since the Thrilla in Manila has a televised clash between two human beings (not wearing football helmets) been so feverishly anticipated. 

Monday night’s presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the first of three scheduled before the Nov. 8 election, is already being lauded as the TV event of the year. Some politicos and pundits, whose unchecked enthusiasm has the subtlety of a red-white-and-blue lobster bib, have speculated that north of 100 million viewers might tune into the showdown. Such a number would surge past all previous presidential debates and put the event on par with the Super Bowl — but that’s a not terribly realistic prospect.

February’s Super Bowl 50, the third most-watched telecast in U.S. history, averaged 111.9 million viewers. That’s 85 percent of the number of Americans who even bothered to vote in the 2012 election.  Over the course of last three presidential elections, the first debates averaged 60.7 million viewers. And those were in years when considerably fewer Americans were consuming their media on other platforms. 

“We have to take into account how many people are going to watch online,” says Sam Armando, lead investment director at media firm Mediavest-Spark. “The ways people consume have changed drastically over the last four years — but with everything that’s going on and the headlines that these candidates are creating, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get something that is up 25 or 30 percent over what it did four years ago.” 

Four years ago, the first debate between President Barack Obama and GOP hopeful Mitt Romney set a 30-plus year high for debate audiences. More than 67 million viewers watched across the ten or so networks carrying the feed, the most since the initial 1980 showdown between incumbent Jimmy Carter and Republican rival Ronald Reagan netted 80 million. 

Working in Monday’s favor is the unprecedented interest in this election. Ever since the first Republican primary debate back in August 2015 surprised everyone with a record-shattering 24 million viewers for Fox News Channel, the TV media has gone out of its way program events for the candidates, particularly Trump, to varying degrees of ratings success. (Not counting the multi-network totals for a handful of convention speeches, nothing has come close to that auspicious kickoff.)

Playing devils advocate for a moment, there is some evidence that points towards a slightly less juggernaut-ish performance for the debate. Summer’s Republican and Democratic National Conventions, while huge, weren’t much bigger from recent presidential election years. In fact, both fell shy of 2015’s most-watched night with Clinton’s DNC speech peaking at 33.7 million viewers and Trump’s RNC address getting total 34.9 million. 

However high (or super-high) the debate gets, nobody will be making a mint off of it. The debate itself is commercial free. And while all of the many participating networks (at least those that are ad-supported) have successfully charged a premium during the respective post-shows, not all brands are eager to be associated with the event. 

“Some advertisers want to take advantage of those impressions that are available but others want to steer clear of the whole thing,” adds Armando. “Some just don’t want their brand associated with some of the views and the things that are said. There’s a little bit of both going on right now.”

TV Ratings