FX’s John Landgraf Says Scripted Surge Isn’t Slowing, TV Losing “Coherent” Conversation

August 09, 2016 10:44am PT by Michael O’Connell, Marisa Guthrie

"They can't double and double and double, because then the entire planet's surface would be covered by Netflix television shows."  Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images

“They can’t double and double and double, because then the entire planet’s surface would be covered by Netflix television shows.”

It’s been a year since FX CEO John Landgraf introduced the concept of “Peak TV” to a room full of critics and reporters — and most of them have been able write about little else since. 

So it was with that kind of sway that the famously philosophical programmer returned to the Television Critics Association stage on Tuesday morning, charts and graphs in tow (and attached below), to offer the curious crowd an update on the industry’s unprecedented volume of scripted series.

“I wrongly predicted that we’d hit the peak in 2015 or 2016,” said Landgraf, noting that the number of English-language adult scripted series in the U.S. will reach as high as 450 by years end — with current trends placing the 2017 total closer to 500 shows. “It now seems clear that, at a minimum, the peak will be in calendar 2017–and there is enough inertial momentum here that we could well see the growth trend carrying over into the 2018 calendar year.”

Landgraf emphasized that he did not see a bubble bursting — but an inevitable contraction: “I think we are ballooning into a condition of oversupply which will at some point slowly deflate, perhaps from 500-plus shows to 400 or a little less than that.”

Noting that the surge in TV is still, in most cases, profitable, Landgraf insisted that the biggest problem, as he sees it, is how the volume has confused the TV discussion. “I also believe that there is so much U.S. television, we have lost much of the thread of a coherent, collective conversation about what is good, what is very good and what is great,” he noted, though he started his presentation by boasting about the network’s recent Emmy love (especially The Americans).

Netflix and other streamers were credited (or blamed) for the continued surge. Outfits such as Hulu and Amazon have more than doubled scripted launches compared to the same time period last year. And while Landgraf remained diplomatic during his presentation, he was a bit more candid about his take during the Q&A. “They can’t double and double and double, because then the entire planet’s surface would be covered by Netflix television shows in 20 years,” he said. “We’re at or near the capacity of what we can pay attention to. You could give me all the money in the world, and I could not make an organization that could supervise 71 shows and give them the level of attention we do.” (He added that he thinks the FX suite would cap out just north of 20 series.) 

Landgraf also made a point of addressing the network’s efforts to put fewer white men behind the camera, sounded off on series past (Terriers) and present (American Horror Story) and addressed the cannibalized limited series category at the Emmys. Here are the main takeaways. 

FX’s Diversity Problem Is Being Fixed

Pointing to article about the overwhelming majority of TV directors being white men, and FX Networks hiring 88 percent in that demographic, Landgraf noted that he has already taken great strides in addressing the problem. “I was dismayed to learn that the FX Networks were bringing up the rear rather than leading on this important issue,” said Landgraf, who fired off a letter to his showrunners. For the current 2016-17 cycle, Landgraf pointed to another chart that had that percentage down to just 49 — with white women and non-white men each making up 22 percent and non-white woman occupying 7 percent of FX directing jobs. “We hope the example of FX more than quadrupling our percentage of diverse and female directors in such a short time sends a message to our whole industry that it is well past time for change to happen—and that it is only a matter of re-thinking our priorities and of putting in the collective effort for us to make it so.”

American Horror Story Promos Are Intentionally Misleading

Any reporter with hopes of pinpointing the theme of the upcoming sixth installment of Ryan Murphy’s American Horror Story is likely leaving FX’s TCA day disappointed. He kept mum about the Sept. 14 return. “Ryan decided it would be really fun to keep it a mystery, so we are,” said Landgraf “They went out and made many more trailers than you’ve actually seen for hypothetical seasons of American Horror Story. One of them is accurate and the others are all misdirects.”

About That “Awkward” Emmy Competition

Landgraf admitted that having The People v. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story and Fargo go head-to-head for the limited series Emmy is “really awkward.” “I think they’re really worthy competitors and I think their primary competition is each other,” he said. Indeed, based on the number of nominations for Ryan Murphy’s OJ opus, awards watchers have given it the edge. But it’s by no means a slam dunk. The other nominees in the category are AMC’s The Night Manager, History’s Roots and ABC’s American Crime. Addressing the glut of limited series overall, Landgraf noted that when Murphy began making American Horror Story several years ago, FX was looking for what was the next new thing in the television universe. And now, the category has become overstuffed with high-profile and excellent projects. “Imitation is the sincerest form of television,” said Landgraf, concluding that “the level of competition across the board is just going to go up and up year after year and it’s going to be very difficult for FX to be dominant.” 

Anthologies Make Sense for Netflix Deals
The decision to license The People v. OJ Simpson to Netflix raised some eyebrows, given Landgraf’s critique of Netflix and his general mandate to own and distribute his own content. But Landgraf noted that the deal was “phenomenal” from a financial standpoint. “Ultimately, running a business is a practical process as much as it is a philosophical one,” he said. “It was an unprecedented deal.” Landgraf reasoned that the free standing structure of American Crime, which is co-produced by FX Productions and 20th TV, also factored into the decision to license it to Netflix. “These are all free standing seasons,” he said. “When we market Hurricane Katrina: American Crime Story, it really won’t matter whether the audience has watched OJ. When I look at all of the various factors, ultimately I thought on a practical level, and many of my colleagues agreed, that this was the right thing to do. So we did it.” 

Terriers Fans Might Want to Sit Down
It was only said in passing, but Landgraf definitely gave hope to fans of short-lived critical favorite Terriers when he was asked if it would have had better odds of survival in the current TV climate. The answer was yes.”I’m not saying we’ll never do a reboot,” he added. “Because I guess we will at one point.”

See the below charts, courtesy of FX Networks, for the current breakdown of U.S. scripted series — and how the numbers compare to past years.

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Michael O'Connell
Marisa Guthrie

Marisa Guthrie

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Fox’s Dana Walden Talks ‘X-Files’ Future, Reboot Fever and Silver Lining to Peak TV

August 08, 2016 12:04pm PT by Michael O’Connell, Marisa Guthrie

Joined for the first time at the TCA stage by David Madden, Walden spoke confidently about the No. 3 network's continued rebuild and IP-heavy lineup.Dana Walden and David Madden  FOX (2)

Joined for the first time at the TCA stage by David Madden, Walden spoke confidently about the No. 3 network’s continued rebuild and IP-heavy lineup.

Fox TV Group chairman and CEO Dana Walden took the stage Monday morning to speak at the network’s presentation to journalists gathered at the Beverly Hilton for the first time without “the tall guy.” (That would be her longtime collaborator and co-chair, Gary Newman.)

“No, I didn’t get a divorce,” she explained, noting that Newman was in the back of the ballroom. The network’s strategy going forward is to get entertainment president David Madden in front of the press more. (Madden, who joined her for the Q&A portion, will be paired with Newman for the January Television Critics Association press tour.)

Still, Walden did most of the talking, including evangelizing the networks many fall reboots. “Every show we ordered won its way onto our schedule,” she said. She echoed her past talk of “rebuilding” and emphasized that the No. 3 network among adults 18-49 — Fox still has the youngest median age among its broadcast competitors, a “super young 48,” she said — is “heading in the right direction.”

In her opening remarks she laid out some of the issues facing broadcast networks, which have a mandate to attract the biggest possible audience and that does not usually translate into critical buzz. “Broadcast shows have not been the flavor of the month for many of you in this room,” she said to the critics in the ballroom, adding that the explosion in content has leveled the playing field. “Now everyone is in the volume business.”

Walden and Madden also discussed the latest with The X-Files, the network’s comedy issues, scheduling shifts and more. Here are the main takeaways.  

The X-Files‘ Future Remains Chris Carter’s Call
Fox’s public stance on more X-Files hasn’t changed — much. “We’d love to do another season,” said Madden, who spoke of it as more of an inevitability than a possibility. “There are active talks with all three principals. We’re working hard, and we’d love to get another season out soon.” Piggybacking onto the status of David Duchovny, Gillian Anderson and creator Chris Carter, one reporter asked if there would be any creative shift after so many critics took issue with much of the six-episode revival. “The show was off the air for a long time,” said Walden, who said she thought the reception was “mixed”. “There was a lot of time to cover in these six episodes. And they had the challenge of filling in the mythology. Going forward, there won’t be as much catching up.” Madden also noted that Carter will continue to shepherd any future for the X-Files brand at Fox: “If we have the opportunity to do more episodes, we’ll take cues from Chris’ team.”

To Reboot or Not to Reboot? That’s a Complicated Question
Fox is not just rebooting to save a few bucks on marketing costs, although Walden admitted that that is one of the key reasons to commission programs based on existing IP. “You get the advantage of recognition and then face the challenge of living up to the original,” said Walden. And she went on to evangelize the network’s reboots: The Rocky Horror Picture Show, The Exorcist, midseason revival 24 and especially Lethal Weapon. The latter, based on the Danny Glover-Mel Gibson buddy movie franchise, “leapt over the bar” set by the movies, said Walden. And market research reveals that the show – starring Damon Wayans and Clayne Crawford — also is among the most well-received by test audiences. (It will be paired with Empire on Wednesdays this fall.) And Walden asserted that it’s too easy to generalize reboots as merely a lazy approach to content. The Exorcist, she said, “took us two years to work through the rights and find the right writer. We’re not interested in just rebooting titles. We have a lot of faith in these four shows.”

The Grinder and Grandfathered Got a Fair Shot
Fox bowed four half-hour comedies last season and none of them made the cut to be renewed for a second season — including critically-praised The Grinder, starring Rob Lowe, and Grandfathered with John Stamos. And Walden admitted that comedy has become even more challenging in a time-shifted, multiplatform universe that is exploding with content. “Comedy doesn’t have the same urgency to view” she said. Audiences tend to watch comedies over a longer period that is beyond on the seven day window that allows networks to monetize them. As an example she offered up 20th TV’s How I Met Your Mother, which didn’t get much traction until its third season: “It’s not a day and time where we have that kind of patience.” That said, Walden asserted that The Grinder and Grandfathered had enough time to find their legs. “I don’t think our comedies last year were canceled quickly,” she said. “We gave them full seasons. They weren’t able to generate the type of ratings that would justify us leaving them on the broadcast platform.”

Thank Kerry Washington for Pitch’s Move From Midseason
Fox made a swift edit to its fall lineup almost immediately after setting the schedule at upfronts. And, as it turns out, it was a response to a scheduling move from another network. What happened? “Scandal moved out of the time period,” said Walden, referring to ABC’s decision to sideline the series to accommodate star Kerry Washington’s pregnancy. “The idea of putting Pitch up against a show that’s a juggernaut with female viewers was not appealing to us.” Bonus: Fox now gets the fall exposure of Empire and the World Series for the MLB-set show.

Fox Won’t Rush to Repeat Grease Live!
Based on new talent deals, Fox is clearly eager to do another live musical event. What shape that will take remains a mystery. Speaking in a scrum of reporters after the presentation, Madden said that it doesn’t necessarily have to be a staging of a familiar Broadway show. He said the network’s also open to an original idea or mining Fox’s music library.

Ownership Isn’t Everything
Few network heads are more familiar with the importance of ownership than Walden. Coming from the studio two years ago and overseeing the Fox TV Group with Newman, she has a current roster of 50 series — most of which don’t air on her own network. But with more and more emphasis on vertical integration, she also insisted that there’s always room for other studios. “All of the media companies are meaningfully into the content ownership business,” she said, “but the ownership issue hasn’t stopped Gotham and Lucifer from staying on our schedule.” Lethal Weapon, perhaps Fox’s biggest bet for the fall, also hails from Warner Bros. TV. “We all want to be on each other’s platforms,” she said, admitting that those shows do make for a different discussion when renewals are on the table. “It is a higher bar when it’s a show produced by an outside studio, but on a show like the ones I’ve mentioned they’re no brainers.”

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Michael O'Connell
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ABC’s Channing Dungey Meets the Press: ‘Star Wars’ on TV, ‘Bachelor’ Diversity and Post-‘Castle’ Procedurals

August 04, 2016 11:01am PT by Michael O’Connell, Marisa Guthrie

The network's new entertainment president makes her first TCA appearance, offering a plan to make the dating franchise less white and emphasizing that talks with LucasFilm are ongoing.Channing Dungey  Courtesy of ABC/Image Group LA

The network’s new entertainment president makes her first TCA appearance, offering a plan to make the dating franchise less white and emphasizing that talks with LucasFilm are ongoing.

Making her first appearance with the TV critics, ABC entertainment president Channing Dungey appeared at ease during her Thursday morning executive session.

The half-hour Q&A, which never touched on anything particularly controversial for the fourth-place network, started with a 10-minute spiel from Dungey talking through her first schedule at the Disney-owned network. “We’re very proud of our brand,” she said, pointing to the sports-free network’s shared status as the No. 1 net with entertainment programming. “We reflect all of America in our diversity, and we definitely want to keep moving in that direction.”

Shrewdly following a panel for Kiefer Sutherland starrer Designated Survivor, one of the fall’s buzzier new shows, Dungey also padded the presentation with the morning’s news of a Kyra Sedgwick series order and renewals for the summer game show block.

The rest of the discussion was very forward-looking, with Dungey emphasizing her interest in getting a piece of Disney’s Star Wars pie, a slower road to diversity on The Bachelor franchise, a plan for more procedurals down the line and personal hopes to boost ratings for John Ridley’s critically-acclaimed American Crime anthology. She also, hopefully, put the great Castle debate of 2016 to bed for good.

Here are the key takeaways.

Diversity Will Come to The Bachelor… Eventually
ABC executives have been taken to task for the overwhelmingly white contestants on popular reality shows The Bachelor and The Bachelorette. And as the first African-American woman to run a broadcast entertainment division, Channing may be the driving force behind finally diversifying the show. “I would very much like to see some changes,” she said. But the challenge is getting more diverse candidates on the show in the first place. That’s because for the last several seasons, the new Bachelor or Bachelorette has been a popular cast member from the previous cycle. “It’s worked very well for us because the audiences feel really engaged [in choosing] that candidate. What we’d like to do is broaden that,” she said. “We need to increase the pool of diverse candidates in the beginning. That is something we really want to put some effort and energy towards.”

Of course ABC Wants Star Wars
Fielding a similar question as her predecessor Paul Lee when parent company Disney first acquired Star Wars house LucasFilm, Dungey did not have an update on any potential Star Wars series coming to ABC. But she did have some optimism. “As a fan, I would absolutely love to say ‘yes,'” she said, when asked if it’s one of the goals of her tenure. “We have had conversations with LucasFilm, and we continue to have them. I think it would be wonderful to extend that brand onto our programming.” Dungey later clarified in a scrum of reporters that she was not sure if that potential Star Wars future would be animated or live action. “We don’t have a time line yet,” she said, stressing that talks are ongoing.

Prestige Shows Get More Patience
“The linear number, we did not hit our target,” Dungey admitted of John Ridley anthology American Crime. The drama nabbed four key Emmy awards and a speedy renewal. It also only averaged a 1.6 rating among adults 18-49 and 6 million viewers with time-shifting. The exec emphasized that multiplatform views help the show, while making it clear that the acclaim has been enough to keep the show on the air. “We’re very hopeful in looking at what he has plans for season 3 that we’ll be able to broaden our base a little bit… It’s all about the launch and the marketing and giving it a little more momentum coming into the season.”

Looking to the Next Step in ABC’s Comedy Brand
Dungey, who was promoted out of ABC’s drama development department, admitted that her biggest challenge in the job so far has been getting up to speed in the comedy genre, an area where ABC has arguably had much success from the enduring popularity of Modern Family to more recent hit Blackish. And Dungey noted that Speechless – which stars Minnie Driver as a mom with a special needs child — is the next iteration of ABC’s inclusive comedy brand. It’s been a couple decades since Life Goes On went off the air, the last time ABC had a show with a prominent special needs character. And Dungey admitted that it is “challenging” to find a show that does not feel too precious. Speechless, she said, “is about a family in which one of the members happens to have special needs. It still feels very accessible, very authentic and very relatable. It does not feel earnest at all.”

Can We Stop Talking About Castle Now?
Dungey may not have appeared annoyed by lingering questions about the cancelation of aging procedural Castle (and, to a lesser degree, the CMT-salvaged Nashville). But some critics were. She emphasized that the axing of Stana Katic, for the ninth season that never came to be, was a studio call. “We were always very upfront with the studio and producers that we might not bring the show back for season nine.” she said. “They did what they felt they had to do in case they got the nod.” And they did not.

Expect More Procedurals in 2017
Speaking of Castle… ABC will have only have one procedural drama on its schedule next season; the Haley Atwell starrer Conviction. It’s a start for a network with a very overtly serialized drama brand. (Buzzed about new drama Designated Survivor is very much a serialized drama. Notorious does have close-ended B storylines, but the main story arc is serialized.) So it will be interesting to see if Conviction succeeds on ABC and further open the network up to the procedural genre. Dungey is clearly hoping it does: “We certainly want to do more. They repeat very well. We have 52 weeks a year to schedule.”

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Michael O'Connell
Marisa Guthrie

Marisa Guthrie

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