Predicting who will be in government after the next election is a challenge and a half. Here’s why.
British politics used to be pretty simple: Every few years there would be a general election which ended with either the Conservatives or Labour winning a majority of the seats.
But in 2010 neither of the parties won a majority of seats, so the coalition government happened. Then the Lib Dem vote collapsed, and the surge in UKIP/SNP/Green support began.
Now politicians in Westminster are now starting to consider the possibility that the 2015 election could leave us with a result from which no government can be formed. British politics is in such a state of flux that no one really knows who is going to win. Or very much at all about anything.
PA Archive/Press Association Images Owen Humphreys
Party loyalties are dying. Almost half of the UK electorate have switched party since 2010.
This analysis by The Times' Data Team for the Red Box blog shows that 44% of voters say they've changed their voting intention since 2010. That's almost half the electorate in less than five years. It's astonishing.
What's more, polling companies take past voting intention into account when they produce surveys. With so many people switching parties, many of their models and weightings don't work as well any more.
"There's an awful lot of churn that's not really being picked up," explains Laurence Janta-Lipinski, a political pollster at YouGov who says voters are backing unexpected parties and groups that don't necessarily fit with previous expectations.
The Times Red Box
Support for the main two parties is falling.
Just two-thirds of the public say they intend to back Labour or the Conservatives. Support for the two parties has declined to the point where it's becoming almost impossible for either to form a majority government.
YouGov
