Opinion polling now favors same-sex marriage, but the Supreme Court has flouted public opinion in major decisions in the past.
Data via Gallup, Gallup Brain, Gallup, BSOS, National Review, Pew, Google Books.
More Americans now favor marriage eqaulity than oppose it — recent polls have found from 49% to a full 58% in favor. But that doesn't necessarily mean the Supreme Court will rule in favor of gay marriage when it considers challenges to California's Prop. 8 and the federal Defense of Marriage Act this week — in several major decisions concerning civil rights and liberties in the last half-century, the Court has run counter to public opinion.
In the cases of Loving v. Virginia, which struck down state laws banning interracial marriage; Abington School District v. Schempp, which declared Bible reading in public schools unconstitutional; and Texas v. Johnson, which found flag-burning to be constitutionally protected, large majorities of Americans at the time disagreed with the Supreme Court's decision. On interracial marriage, public opinion is now aligned with the Court's decision — on flag-burning and prayer in schools it's not, though it may be moving in that direction.
Some court-watchers think the recent polling on gay marriage will make the Court more comfortable ruling in favor of it; but if they chose to go against the polls, it wouldn't be the first time.
