Tonight's the night of the goofiest event in sports: the NBA Draft lottery. Chance will decide the fates of 14 NBA teams, who all want to have the opportunity to select one unibrowed, game-changing center. Here's what it means for each team if they win.
(Getty Images / SAUL LOEB)
See that guy up there, the one hanging out with Barack Obama? You know who that is. That's the Unibrowed Titan himself, Anthony Davis, a potentially sport-altering center who should evolve whichever team has the privilege of selecting him from a bad-to-mediocre defensive squad into an impregnable NBA fortress.
Everyone knows Anthony Davis will be selected first overall in next month's NBA Draft. It's as foregone a conclusion as Andrew Luck's pole-position in the NFL's parallel event. But unlike with the NFL, where we knew as soon as the Colts played their last game in December that they would have the first overall pick come April, the identity of the team that will choose Davis is right now a mystery. A mystery that will be decided tonight, at the Draft Lottery.
Since 1990 — prior to 1990, the NBA used win-loss records exclusively and then a random lottery system — draft order has been determined by a weighted lottery in which every non-playoff team has the chance to win the first overall pick, with the likelihood of this changing based on their win-loss record from the previous year. This means that every NBA team who didn't make a trip to the playoffs this year has a shot at Anthony Davis, ranging from the Bobcats, with a 25% chance of landing the first pick, to the Houston Rockets, who have a 0.5% chance. And every team in the lottery knows how important these ping-pong balls are.
Charlotte Bobcats — 25.0%
Out of the 14 teams waiting to hear their names called, the Bobcats have both the best shot at the top pick and the second-most on the line. (One team has more at risk; we'll get to them shortly.)
Coming off the worst winning-percentage season in NBA history, Charlotte is in DESPERATE need of the presence that Anthony Davis would provide immediately upon being picked. Aside from being possibly the best defensive prospect since Bill Russell, Davis is also a fan-favorite and franchise-player candidate, all of which the Bobcats need. He'll sell tickets; he'll get people excited. Charlotte requires all of these things.
Of course, the irony of all this is that, despite the Bobcats having a greater chance than any other team of winning the lottery, they still only have a 1-in-4 shot. The Bobcats probably will not win. That's frightening for anyone with a practical or emotional investment in Charlotte. If the Bobcats don't hear their name called tonight, expect panic and abject disappointment, followed by the selection of a consolation prize: either Kentucky forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Florida shooting guard Bradley Beal. Both should be solid NBA players, but neither has a ceiling even close to that of Davis'.
In terms of how cool it would be to see Davis on the Bobcats... it wouldn't be. Even with Davis, Charlotte remains a deeply flawed team, lacking starting-caliber players at basically every position. The only other promising player on the team is Kemba Walker, an undersized, scoring-oriented point guard. They don't have a coach. Jordan's an atrocious owner. Hiring Rich Cho as GM was a step in the right direction, but if there's any team that could botch the seemingly unbotchable Davis, it's Charoltte. Except, let's face it, the Wizards or Kings could too. There's no such thing as a sure bet in professional sports.
Awesomeness factor (of Bobcats getting the pick): 3/10
(AP / Chuck Burton)
Washington Wizards — 19.9%
The Wizards have a 1-in-5 chance of winning the draft lottery for the second time in the last five years. And despite the calamity of a team that Washington has been since Gilbert Arenas' mind imploded and he dragged the franchise into a tailspin, it would be kind of awesome if they got Davis.
Pairing Davis with Wall would create one of the more promising young point guard/big man tandems in the Association, a University of Kentucky duo that — dare we say it? — could be the only situation alluring enough to pull John Calipari back into the NBA. (Probably not, but it's fun to consider.) And Davis would be paired in the frontcourt with Nene, who, thanks to the work of the Denver Nuggets management, is under contract with Washington for the next 500 years, or something.
If the Wizards do not get Davis, which they probably won't, expect them to take the next best guard/forward — again, probably Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal, maybe Thomas Robinson — since their lineup is unsettled aside from Wall and Nene.
Awesomeness factor: 7/10
(AP / Evan Vucci)
